The "science" of predicting gender

I’ve been spending an inordinate amount of brain power lately speculating on whether this little baby of mine is a girl or a boy. I know I’m not supposed to have any preference, and I’m probably going to have to go back and do a lot of revising of this blog one day so the boys I do have don’t think I only kept them around because I was holding out for a girl, and I certainly don’t want a potential future boy to think he was unwanted.

But, let’s face it – I really do want a girl. *cringe* (That cringe is partly because I feel bad stating it so baldly, and partly because I feel like I’m tempting fate. Knock some wood for me, wouldja please?)

There’s lots of reasons I want a girl. I want a girl because I think it would be an easier family dymanic to have two boys and a girl rather than strand Simon in the middle of three boys. I want a girl because I was a girl, and I’ve always had such a wonderful relationship with my mother, and she with her mother before that, and I would love to carry that on to the next generation. I want a girl because when boys grow up, they tend to move away and girls stay close. I want a girl simply because I don’t have one.

Another day, I’ll blog about why I want another boy. Because I do. Ambivalence, thy name is Dani.

I’ve heard a lot of women say they just ‘knew’ what the baby’s gender is. So far, I’m two for two – I was convinced in my heart of hearts both Tristan and Simon were girls, right up until they exposed themselves on the ultrasound. (Exhibitionists they both are to this day.) This time, I can admit an absolute lack of insight – I have no inkling whatsoever.

The waiting, it is making me a little squirrelly. Four more weeks to the day – not that I’m counting – and we’ll hopefully have some resolution to this mystery. What I will do with a result like “well, it’s about 60% likely that it’s a …” remains to be seen.

In the interim, I’ve succumbed to folklore to tickle my fancy. I came across an article in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, where they set about to disprove three common “old wives’ tales” for predicting gender. Sad though it is, I was more than happy to run through them all to see if I could glean any inside information.

The three tests they examined are the fetal heart rate test, the Chinese calendar test and the Draino (!) test.

The fetal heart rate test implies that babies with heart rates greater than 140 bpm were girls, and heart rates slower than than were boys.

Check! Baby’s heart rate at the last ultrasound was 169 bpm. Girl.

The ancient Chinese birth gender chart, “buried in a tomb near Beijing for 700 years”, apparently predicts gender with “over 90% accurracy” based on the month of conception and the mother’s age at conception.

Check! Conceived in August, when I was 37 years old. Girl.

The third test involves peeing on some Draino, and even I, the queen of impatience, am not willing to risk a chemical burn to my nether regions to try this particular test. Call me crazy. We’ll leave a question mark beside that one and call it a day.

And in case you are wondering, yes, it was always in the back of my mind that the whole predicate of the article in the CMAJ is the fact that the tests did NOT have any statistically significant value in predicting gender. I know, I know.

So anyway, I was willing to fold this up and keep it in my mental hope chest as a good omen when it occurred to me that I have my own control group to work with. I ran through both tests again given the same information I had for Tristan and Simon and the results, although somewhat deflating, are hardly surprising.

Turns out Tristan and Simon are both girls, too.

Author: DaniGirl

Canadian. storyteller, photographer, mom to 3. Professional dilettante.

15 thoughts on “The "science" of predicting gender”

  1. I was convinced my 1st was a girl. My doctor said multiple times, “Wow! That’s a really fast heart rate. Must be a girl.” Nope. Tommy’s all boy. At least he cooperated with the ultrasound so I had a few months to get used to the idea.
    With this pregnancy I’m again hoping for a girl, although I’m much more open minded about either outcome. The doctor says “Wow, that’s one peaceful baby you’ve got in there. Probably a boy.” Maybe he’ll be wrong again. Only 3.5 more weeks to wait until the ultrasound.

  2. 1 – I wanted my younger boy to be a girl. No shame in wanting pigtails and little tights with ruffles on the butt!!
    2- The Chinese gender chart said both my boys would be girls.
    3 – The heartrate thing would’ve meant both my boys should’ve been girls.
    There’s one – I can’t remember right off – that’s something about your wedding ring on a string held over your belly. If it swings one way it’s a boy and the other way means a girl. I never tried it but I have friends who swear by it! We should find out about that one and have you try it!!!
    Or… 4 weeks isn’t so long. AFTER it’s passed! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  3. I wanted only boys, but that comes from having a history of really bad mother-daughter relationships in our family.
    The CGC said both my boys would be boys.
    The heartrate thing said my youngest son would be a girl. The pregnancy was so different from the first that I swore I was having a girl. Thomas was a nice surprise (well, at the ultrasound, heh.)
    I hope you have a healthy baby, no matter what happens!
    Karen

  4. Will the Drano test not work if you pee in a cup and then pour it in, maybe using tongs, rubber gloves, and goggles?
    Because I really want you to do the Drano test too.

  5. It’s unfortunate that we can’t really voice our “preferences” without feeling bad. Clearly you love your boys and wanting a girl doesn’t mean you would love a boy any less, right? But then, you know, you’re sure to find at least one person who would post and call you selfish.
    Look pessimism and crabiness on a Monday! ๐Ÿ˜‰
    With number 3, I knew she was girl number 3 and was not at all surprised. I was in awe and thrilled. Three little girls. It was too cute for words.
    By number 4, I was ready for something different and I wanted a boy. I never had any inkling either way because I think my desire clouded my vision of the whole thing. Does that make sense?

  6. I’m sending girl vibes your way. I would’ve sworn on anything when I was pregnant with Anna that she was a boy. I also thought Emma was going to be a boy. I also thought John was a boy.
    Hey, 1 out of 3 ain’t bad.

  7. I know what you mean. Apparently my Leah and Rachel are both boys, according to the Chinese calendar and the pin-on-a-thread test.
    Somewhere I have a nice little graph that shows that there is absolutely no correlation between fetal heart rate and sex – but none of my pregnant friends ever wanted to see it. Nobody wants a science geek around when there’s fun to be had like mixing drano with pee….

  8. All of them were right for Amelia. Except by the time I saw Amelia on the ultrasound screen at 12 weeks I had changed from convincing myself that it was a girl to a boy.
    I used to dream that she was a boy but she didn’t have penis. It was nuts.
    Anyway, if my two cents are worth anything…I think it’s a girl. And when I asked Amelia if your baby was a girl or boy, she said “gurel”.

  9. The Chinese calendar test didn’t work for me, but the heartate test was bang on (my O.B. is a big fan of this one – at each check he would report on the gender, promising a 50% rate of success).
    The wedding ring test told me I’d have three boys.
    I’m with Marla – go for the Drano!

  10. To give you some hope the Chinese calendar and the heart rate test were accurate for all three of mine pregnancies. Oh and if you do the Drano test it is recommended that when you pour the pee in the Drano that you are outside.

  11. Even if we discount the possibility of chemical burns to the hoochie (and Marla, you of ALL people this week should be, um, sensitive to that), the promise of toxic fumes is more than enough to dissuade me from the Drano test.
    Not gonna happen!

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